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10/10/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 3rd. October, 2009.
On this day there were four Group 1 races held at Randwick: The Flight Stakes, Spring Champion Stakes, Epsom Handicap and The Metropolitan.
At Flemington the $500,000 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes was held.

Randwick - Epsom Handicap Day
Track Slow

R3 $150,000 Roman Consul Stakes
3YO. Group 2. Set weights.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rothesay
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Shellscrape
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Chris Waller

Doomben: Track Good

R2 $50,000 Class 6. Set weights.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Plenty Of Practise
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Owen Turpin
Trainer: Frank Phillips
Winner: Punch Up
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Peter Balzen

R3 $50,000 2 MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1640 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sir Kingsford
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Len Bryant
Winner: Sommersea Drive
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Owen Turpin
Trainer: Trevor Miller

This edition of Punt to Win:
Wagering on horses ridden by apprentice jockeys
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/9/2009 & 19/9/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/9/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/9/2009
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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