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10/10/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 26th. September, 2009.

Randwick: Track Good

R2 $150,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Denman
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Doomben: Track Good

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Attallus
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Danny Craven
Trainer: Danny J. Bougoure
Winner: Uncle Jan
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Chris McIver
Trainer: Matt Kropp

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 5
Equal Favourite: Southerly Impact
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Owen Turpin
Trainer: Donald Baker
Equal Favourite: Heart Of The Citi
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Michael Hellyer
Trainer: Pat Duff


Morphettville: Track Slow

R1 $26,500 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Testa Filou
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

R3 $26,500 3YO & up. 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Cairngorm
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: John Dunn
Winner: Likable Will
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.30
Jockey: Christine Puls
Trainer: Darren Kolpin

R6 $31,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Ocean Challenger
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Darren Magro

This edition of Punt to Win:
Wagering on horses ridden by apprentice jockeys
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/9/2009 & 19/9/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/9/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/9/2009
Punt to Win index
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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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