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10/10/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

There was no Saturday Melbourne metropolitan horse racing meeting on the 26th. September as that clashes with the AFL Australian Rules Football Grand Final.
So here are
the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 19th. September, 2009 when the Group 1 Weight for Age Underwood Stakes and the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes were run.

Caulfield
Track: Dead
Rail: True Position
Penetrometer: 5.33

R1 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Tribunal
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Romneya
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R3 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Huxssen
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Rodney Douglas

R4 $125,000 Thousand Guineas Prelude.
3YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Irish Lights
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes

R5 $175,000 Caulfield Guineas Prelude.
3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Trusting
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R6 $350,000 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Group 1. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Raffaello
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R7 $350,000 Underwood Stakes. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Whobegotyou
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R8 $125,000 How Now Stakes.
Mares. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Absolut Glam
Days since last start: 91
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 9-20
Result this start: 13th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R9 $125,000 Naturalism Stakes. Group 3. Quality Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Speed Gifted
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

Comments:
Punters got off to a good start backing three winning favourites in the first four races. Two of the winning favourites had won their previous race, the third winning favourite finished second at its last start. Of the three favourites two raced 14 days earlier, the third, 17 days earlier.

In R3 Huxssen which was unplaced at its previous start was unplaced again. While in R8 Absolut Glam, resuming as favourite after a spell of 91 days, finished well down the track.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Wagering on horses ridden by apprentice jockeys
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/10/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/9/2009 & 19/9/2009
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/10/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/9/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/9/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/9/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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