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10/11/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on VRC Derby Day, Saturday, 3rd. November, 2012.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Sessions
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.26
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $85,000 2YO. Open. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Sweet Idea
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Criterion
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: David Payne

Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Moroccan Rose
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: Gillian Heinrich
Winner: Missy Longstocking
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Liam Birchley

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Topping
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Ric Mcmahon
Trainer: Tony Gollan
Winner: Marked
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Ryan Wiggins
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington 2012 Melbourne Cup free betting advice, tips, odds, betting system and free Melbourne Cup horse racing ratings
The Free Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: Cox Plate 27/10/2012, Manikato Stakes 26/10/2012 & Caulfield Cup 20/10/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: VRC Derby Day 3/11/2012

Betting favourites in small fields: Cox Plate Day 27/10/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Cup Day 20/10/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 20/10/2012
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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