Professional Punter Australia Sydney Autumn Carnival Betting Tips

That's right. Despite the promotions from many in the racing media, telling punters what a great meeting it is and how you'll get "value" on just about whatever you fancy, carnival races are usually not good betting races.

The carnival races with lightly raced horses are very tough and very open. Anything can and does happen in the other races as well where there are many quality gallopers competing.

At carnival times there's also no such thing as the regularly media promoted "match race" unless there are only two horses in the race. When does that happen?

Fragmentation $3.90 6/10
Winestock $3.70 3/10
Northerly $1.75 6/13
Erin Bee $3.40 12/13
Lonhro $2.15 1/7
Fine Society $3.00 14/16
On A High $3.80 2/13

There was one other favourite - Force Apollo which firmed from $6.00, started at $5.50 and won. However that $5.50 was not as generous as it seems, as Force Apollo had to lug 58.5kg. in the field of 13 three year olds. Keep taking $5.50 about favourites in that situation and you'll lose money. (Tote punters have no show when you consider that as little as $4.40 was paid on Force Apollo by SuperTab.)

The lesson should be quite clear. Take short odds during carnival racing and you're going to get clobbered.

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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