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11/4/2003 edition

Is Northerly a
Good Bet in Handicaps?

Have a look at Northerly's record in handicaps when asked to carry 60kg. or more:

November 24, 2001
Ascot, Group 1 Railway Stakes, $2.25 fav., 61.5kg., 11/13

August 17, 2002
Belmont Park, Listed Goodwood Sprint, $2.35 fav., 60kg., 5/11

March 1, 2003
Caulfield, Listed Victoria Gold Cup, $1.30 fav., 60kg., 2/6

Northerly is clearly vulnerable in handicaps. But that didn't stop punters sending Northerly out as $1.75 favourite in last Saturday's Group 3 N.E. Mannion Handicap at Rosehill.

Northerly carried 61.5kg. In the 13 horse field the gelding had absolutely no luck in the straight and never got a clear run. Northerly finished sixth. Mr. Trickster, who shocked many by defeating Northerly in the Victoria Gold Cup, again finished ahead of Northerly.

This edition of Punt to Win:
John Hawkes, Gai Waterhouse betting tips
Sydney Autumn Carnival betting tips
Adelaide bookmakers' tight, tight, betting odds
Should you back Northerly in handicaps?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/4/2003
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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