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11/7/2003 edition

Horse Racing Betting Myths

Horse racing betting myth:
Don't bet on horses dropping back in distance

Regular Forum contributor "osulldj" has posted many valuable betting tips which show that the "betting rules" that many punters accept are just betting myths that help them lose.

Here is an interesting post in the Horse Racing Forum from "osulldj". It was posted on the 4th. July this year.

"Statistically there is next to no difference between the strike rate of horses going up in distance as opposed to coming back.

As I've said in many posts though, you can ill afford to make generalising assumptions about any aspect of racing. That's where many people fall down.....the little fixed rules they have in their head that influence their form analysis and betting decisions.

Each horse and race needs to be looked at in isolation for the unique event that it is. There will be times where a horse going up in distance is a top chance and other times where that distance rise means it has little chance.

In my view, the sooner a punter can move themselves away from thinking about racing as a group of fixed rules or assumptions and more towards having an ongoing open mind that looks at each race's context as unique, the sooner they can progress towards making money."


Now that is a real betting myth that helps you eliminate good winners.

Last Saturday, July 5 at Flemington Naden dropped back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 metres. He was backing up after only one week from his 1400 metres' run as well - another betting myth that horses run poorly if they back up exactly one week after their previous run.

On June 28, Naden, who was sent out $4.20 favourite, had to work hard early over that 1400 metres race and also overraced. He finished eleventh of the tvelve runners, beaten by nearly six lengths.

However three weeks earlier on June 7 Naden won a 3YO Listed race at Flemington over 1200 metres by more than three lengths. If you were prepared to dismiss the 1400 metres run, ignore the drop back in distance and assess Naden on that 1200 metres win, then you had a very strong bet.

In the field of 14 on Saturday Naden started at $6.00 and won by three lengths.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Comment - Cox Plate admission is over the top
Betting myths - wet tracks
Betting myths - horses dropping back in distance
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sunshine Coast betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/7/2003
Punt to Win index

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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

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