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11/7/2003 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill 5/7/2003
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Darcy D'Or
59.5kg.
5
1900
$10.00
8/9
Flemington 5/7/2003
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Le Zagaletta
59kg.
4
1630
$3.80f.
2/14
Cheltenham 5/7/2003
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
King's Arch
59.5kg.
4
1350
$3.00f.
1/9

This edition of Punt to Win:
Comment - Cox Plate admission is over the top
Betting myths - wet tracks
Betting myths - horses dropping back in distance
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sunshine Coast betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/7/2003
Punt to Win index


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