14/6/2002 edition

Brisbane Carnival Tips

Derby match race

Punters saw the $500,000 Group 1 Queensland Derby as a match race between Galroof and Distinctly Secret.

Tote prices were as short as $2.80 for Distinctly Secret and $3.50 for Galroof. In the bookmaker betting ring Distinctly Secret started a short $3.20 while Galroof met solid support from $3.80 into $3.00.

These prices were well under their true odds. It was an 18 horse field. To give those two horses a 67% winning chance leaves the other 16 runners with just a 33% chance of winning between them all. That simply does not make sense.

The bigger the field, the more likely things can go wrong in the running such as being taken on for the lead, trapped wide or held up for a run. The bigger the field, the longer the odds you require on the horses with the best winning chances as you have to make a significantly increased allowance in the price for bad luck.

Distinctly Secret, started from barrier six. Brian York, an overhyped jockey - just look at the plunges he regularly fails to deliver on Gai Waterhouse trained horses, was unable to give Distinctly Secret a soft run in the race, with the gelding trapped wide throughout.

(Brian York also managed to have bad luck on Altiero, also from barrier six, in the previous race, who was trapped wide throughout and finished last, beaten by over 22 lengths as $3.20 favourite. Not having seen the stewards report at time of writing, presumably something went amiss with Altiero to weaken out of it that badly.)

Anyway, considering the hard run, Distinctly Secret ran a huge race to finish fourth, beaten under two lengths.

Galroof also ran a huge race for second. With leading jockey Damien Oliver riding, the odds were naturally poor. The obvious rarely works in horse racing. If something is obvious to all, because it is a negative sums game, you can bet your bottom dollar punters will be offered skinny odds. So it turned out with Galroof.

As often happens in a big race in Brisbane, it was a new horse on the Brisbane scene, the Max Lees trained County Tyrone, who came and took the winner's prizemoney. County Tyrone had an excellent strike rate of five wins from 14 starts. He had also won a Saturday Welter over 2000 metres at Randwick two weeks earlier against the older horses. Not a bad formline when coming back to 3YO company.
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington racetrack - eliminate races down the straight
Latest from Lindsay Park Stable
Brisbane Carnival tips
Follow these tipsters?
Simple betting system that can win big
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Flemington and Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/6/2002
Punt to Win index

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