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15/8/2003 edition

Betting Tote Favourites

Last week we received an e-mail which went:

"Bookmakers don't chase the odds any more like they used to. Top fluctuation is a joke. I get better odds going to the pub on a Saturday betting favourites in Sydney than I do with bookmakers. So don't try and tell us that top fluctuation is good."

Below are the tote odds from SuperTab last Saturday and the bookmaker top fluctuation odds for all the starting price favourites in Sydney and Melbourne last Saturday. The favourites are listed in race order.

You will see that starting price favourites are at substantially better odds bet at top fluctuation with the bookmakers than bet on the tote. That punter who e-mailed could hardly have been serious - it must have been tongue in cheek.

Randwick (Sydney):

Miz Riocee
Bookmaker odds: $2.70
Tote odds: $2.40

Domine
Bookmaker odds: $2.50
Tote odds: $1.90

Ms Bowie
Bookmaker odds: $4.00
Tote odds: $2.90

Miss Ivy (equal favourite)
Bookmaker odds: $4.20
Tote odds: $5.20
Tummler (equal favourite)
Bookmaker odds: $4.60
Tote odds: $4.50

Pristine Partners
Bookmaker odds: $2.70
Tote odds: $2.40

Spark Of Life
Bookmaker odds: $1.60
Tote odds: $1.70

Lady Amante
Bookmaker odds: $6.50
Tote odds: $4.00

Dehero
Bookmaker odds: $5.50
Tote odds: $3.70

Sandown (Melbourne):

Sacred Hill
Bookmaker odds: $2.60
Tote odds: $1.90

Fashion Victim
Bookmaker odds: $3.10
Tote odds: $2.10

San Simeon
Bookmaker odds: $2.40
Tote odds: $2.00

Ashtaroth
Bookmaker odds: $2.30
Tote odds: $2.00

Aka Bilk
Bookmaker odds: $3.40
Tote odds: $3.30

Hardy Steele
Bookmaker odds: $3.40
Tote odds: $3.00

Marwina Lass
Bookmaker odds: $4.20
Tote odds: $3.00

Lot Zaabeer
Bookmaker odds: $4.80
Tote odds: $3.90

From the examples above bookmaker odds were over 19% better than tote odds.

Punters who roll up to their local TABs and start backing tote favourites have virtually no chance of breaking even because of the poor odds they consistently get.

Favourites are poor tote bets, whenever they are backed. You can't expect to make money backing the winners of tote popularity polls in betting markets around 120%.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tote favourites
Jockey watch - Michael Rodd
Betting tips - penalising horses, first up betting odds
Betting tips - trifectas and first fours
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/8/2003
Punt to Win index


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