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15/8/2003 edition

Handicapping and Betting Tips

Penalising horses when handicapping

A well known handicapping dictum is to never penalise a horse for what is has not had the opportunity of doing. We wonder how accurate that is.

It certainly didn't work for punters who sent out 3YO filly Fashion Victim as $3.00 favourite in the second at Sandown over 1000 metres. Horses out of Rory's Jester, for whatever reason, are notoriously poor runners on rain affected going.

Already proven and well performed on Good rated tracks, Fashion Victim was beaten by nearly nine lengths at her first start on the genuinely Slow rain affected track at Sandown Hillside.


First up - beware short betting odds

Fashion Victim was also first up since February. Any horse resuming from a spell is a greater betting risk than a hard, racefit horse. That's why short odds make for an added betting risk for these first up animals.

Good 2YOs don't always return as good 3YOs. Similarly good 3YOs don't always return as good 4YOs.

The worst betting odds of the day had to be Spark Of Life. While not first up, this 3YO gelding was having his first race for 42 days. He started at $1.45 favourite against a class field including the Magic Millions winner, Regimental Gal. We wanted to back Spark Of Life, but considered $5.00 value. We were never in the ballpark, and avoided a losing bet at crazy odds.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tote favourites
Jockey watch - Michael Rodd
Betting tips - penalising horses, first up betting odds
Betting tips - trifectas and first fours
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/8/2003
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830
Glefti 18.20 25.70 $750


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