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16/5/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 9th. May, 2009.

Flemington: Track Good

R2 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Renaissance
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Take All Of Me
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Bruce & Jean Purcell


Hawkesbury: Track Good

R2 $60,000 4YO & upward. Rst90. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Shaketheground
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Winner: Soiled
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Jason Coyle


Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $30,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Dorsoduro
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Tony Vasil


Here is the result from Saturday, 2nd. May, 2009.

Caulfield: Track Dead

R1 $70,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sugar Babe
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $4.60
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Cat Storm
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find winning horse racing bets at huge odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/4/2009
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/5/2009 and 2/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Sydney Cup Day - 25/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/4/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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