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16/5/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Anzac Day, Saturday, 25th. April, 2009.

Flemington
Track: Good
Rail: Out 5 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.45

R1 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Equal Favourite: Keano
Days since last start: 70
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 5-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Equal Favourite: Solchow
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Kel Chapman

R2 $75,000 2YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Set For Fame
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Hissing Sid
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Wayne Hokai
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R4 $75,000 4YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 14
Equal Favourite: Arapaho Miss
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2440
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Pat Carey
Equal Favourite: Grand Destiny
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 2440
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Michael Kent

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Equal Favourite: Imashadow
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Gwenda Johnstone
Equal Favourite: Falaise
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R6 $200,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 2800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Buffett
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 10-16
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R7 $125,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1610 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Chasm
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Heath Conners

R8 $75,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: About Ready
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Mick Price

Comments:
In R5 equal favourite Falaise was dropped back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 metres and finished seventh. In R6 the favourite, Buffett, finished tenth at its previous start and did not turn this form around enough to win. In R8 the favourite, About Ready, did not appreciate the 28 days between 1200 metres runs and finished down the track.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find winning horse racing bets at huge odds
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 2/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 25/4/2009
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/5/2009 and 2/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Sydney Cup Day - 25/4/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/4/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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