Punt to Win

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17/11/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Victoria Derby Day, Saturday, 3rd. November.

Morphettville: Track Slow

R2 $20,000 Mares. Rst. 0 - 94. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Fellina
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Louise Morgan
Trainer: Peter Jolly
Winner: Quotation
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.70
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell

R7 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Flying Phoenix
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Fred Meuring
Winner: Delusion
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing track specialists
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Hayes, Hawkes, Waterhouse horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/11/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/11/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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