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17/11/2007 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Moonee Valley - 27/10/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Blessed Sue
61kg.
8
1200
$7.00
10/13
Caulfield - 13/10/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Zizou
60kg.
1
1200
$5.50
2/8
Cheltenham - 29/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Royal Ida
61kg.
6
1000
$3.00fav.
3/12
Moonee Valley - 15/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Soulacroix
59.5kg.
3
1509
$8.50
7/14
Warwick Farm - 8/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mentality
61kg.
7
1400
$3.50fav.
2/9
Flemington - 8/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
King Of Ashford
59kg.
6
1400
$4.00fav.
8/8
Morphettville - 8/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Finniss D'or
59.5kg.
5
1600
$4.00
2/6
Caulfield - 1/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Undue
59kg.
9
1100
$5.50fav.
1/16
Morphettville - 1/9/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tassie Gold
60kg.
3
1200
$4.40fav.
4/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing track specialists
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Hayes, Hawkes, Waterhouse horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/11/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/11/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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