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18/1/2014 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses are handicapped with 60kg. (61kg. with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

This table below shows recent results for horses that carried 60kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a bookmaker starting price of $10.00 or shorter. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We have eliminated any races where more than three horses carried at least 60kg. with a starting price of $10.00 or shorter. We're updating each week from the main Saturday horse race meetings held in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Warwick Farm - 11/1/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Didntcostalot
60.5kg.
2
1000
$8.50
3/10
Flemington - 11/1/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Primitive Man
60kg.
9
1200
$6.50
7/12
Gold Coast - 11/1/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Driefontein
61kg.
4
1300
$5.00
1/11
Rosehill - 4/1/2014
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Windswept
60kg.
4
1100
$4.60
5/11
Red Excitement
61.5kg.
11
1350
$4.40equ.fav.
3/14
Moonee Valley - 28/12/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lucky Symbol
60kg.
3
1200
$4.60
3/8
Vintage Lad
60.5kg.
11
2040
$6.50
7/14
Flemington - 21/12/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Adirondack
60kg.
4
1420
$6.00
3/10
Esprit De Bullet
60kg.
4
1000
$4.00equ.fav.
1/8
Instrumentalist
60kg.
6
2540
$6.50
1/9
Extra Zero
60kg.
2
2000
$8.00
5/10
Randwick Kensington - 7/12/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Berrimilla
60.5kg.
6
1300
$6.50
8/9
Rosehill - 30/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Imperil
60kg.
7
1500
$5.50
2/13
Caulfield - 30/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Pompeius
60kg.
4
1700
$6.50
4/8
Essential Element
60kg.
1
1400
$4.60
7/7
Randwick Kensington - 23/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Berrimilla
60kg.
9
1150
$7.50
2/10
Moonee Valley - 23/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Vatican
60kg.
9
1000
$7.50
2/12
Electric Fusion
60kg.
3
2040
$7.50
2/13
Magnus Reign
60kg.
2
1200
$8.00
2/14
Sumakaray
60kg.
6
1200
$4.80fav.
3/13
Eagle Farm - 23/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Better Than Ready
60.5kg.
8
1200
$2.35fav.
1/15
Eagle Farm - 9/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Better Than Ready
60.5kg.
4
1000
$3.00fav.
1/8
Rosehill - 2/11/2013
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Single
60kg.
1
1800
$8.00
4/9
Tahitian Black
60kg.
1
1100
$8.50
1/14
 

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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