Punt to Win
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
So here are the results from Saturday, 11th. March.
Flemington: Australian Cup Day
R3 $150,000 2YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $20,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Rs0mw. Handicap.
R2 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1mw. Handicap.
This edition of Punt to Win:
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
|Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.|