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18/3/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

So here are the results from Saturday, 11th. March.

Flemington: Australian Cup Day
Track Good

R3 $150,000 2YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Satin Robes
Result: second
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.90
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Nediym's Glow
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gorky Park
Result: first

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tears 'N' Triumph
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Lee Hope
Winner: Silk Wind
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: John Didham
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Roman Arch, $61.10 Australian Cup winner
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Warwick Farm and Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/3/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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