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18/9/2010 edition

Betting Horse Racing Tips
Everyone "Knows Will Win "

We repeatedly stress on this site that to win long term at racing you must have an angle that is different from the "public". If you bet like everyone else, take the same odds as everyone else, then you will get their results, which is a long term loss.

As an example of this every few years we think it's worth having another look at what happened when everyone "knew" John Hawkes was going to win plenty of races in Melbourne because John Hawkes was going to make sure he won the 2002 Race Horse Trainers' Premiership.

John Hawkes Will Win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership
Everyone "knew" that John Hawkes, eager to win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership, was bringing down good horses from Sydney in July to complement his Melbourne team of horses.

Have a look at the table below. It shows how the 25 John Hawkes' trained horses performed in July on Saturdays in Melbourne - the horses that everyone "knew" were primed for big races to help John Hawkes win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership.

Flemington 5/7/2002
Horse
Dollar Starting Price Odds
Finish
Domine
6.00
6/15
Gramercy
3.50
7/13
Victorix
10.00
4/13
Naareda
10.00
3/13
Lilindeeana
10.00
7/14
Moonee Valley 12/7/2002
Horse
Dollar Starting Price Odds
Finish
Tito
3.00
4/13
Hollow
13.00
8/13
Gradual
3.20
7/12
Kepero
7.00
4/13
Tweak
9.00
7/13
Old Man
8.00
4/12
Caulfield 19/7/2002
Horse
Dollar Starting Price Odds
Finish
Lambeth
8.00
6/11
Volley
17.00
10/11
Palais
3.50
4/7
Gramercy
11.00
4/15
Malo
8.00
8/15
Sports
13.00
9/11
Philotimo
6.50
6/9
Boreale
2.35
2/13
Orthopaedic
12.00
12/15
Moonee Valley 26/7/2002
Horse
Dollar Starting Price Odds
Finish
Snick
4.00
3/7
Gironde
21.00
5/13
Boreale
3.50
9/13
Old Man
4.60
5/8
Victorix
5.00
10/15

What an absolute disaster. 25 runners - not one winner. Many were favourites. Most were kept very safe in the betting. There were eight horses that started under $5.00. Because punters "knew" the horses were set to win, because punters "knew" John Hawkes was determined to win the Melbourne Race Horse Trainers' Premiership, you can bet that his horses would most likely be well under the odds on the tote and with the bookies.

That's the way horse racing betting operates.

As we repeatedly stress on this site, what everyone "knows" in horse racing is guaranteed to provide you with ways of losing betting money long term, nothing else. It can be no different, because betting on racing is a negative sums game which consistently returns less money to punters than is outlaid in bets."
Based on Punt to Win, 2nd. August, 2002.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horse racing tips everyone "Knows Will Win"
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Three Lengths horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 11/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 4/9/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 28/8/2010
Punt to Win index


2009 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Strawberry Field 21.00 32.60 $116
Right Fong 13.70 17.00 $33
Majestic Music 9.80 13.00 $32
Common Interest 9.20 12.00 $28
She's Got Gears 10.00 12.60 $26
Flying Tessie 11.00 13.40 $24
Shocking 9.80 11.00 $12


 

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