Punt to Win
Horse Racing Media Tipsters' Betting Tips
The other week we thought we'd listen for a while to what horse racing media tipsters tell their radio audience. It never ceases to amaze us how many punters seriously pay attention to what in our opinion is often nothing more than verbal diarrhea. Here is some of what we heard:
1. We had a Heavy track at a race meeting and so the radio tipster told us something along these lines:
"The key to this race is that none of the horses have any wet track form, so we have no form relevant for this wet track. How often do we see in the stewards' reports comments like "Failed to handle the track conditions." Well, based only on dry track form that could happen to any horse that I put on top. We are only guessing and when you have to rely on guesswork only the odds are heavily stacked against the punters."
2. A radio tipster put a $2.00 horse on top with comments along these lines:
"It will win. But it's no value. There's nothing special about putting a $2.00 horse on top. Anyone can tip a $2.00 winner. But this horse will win."
As for the shallow comment that "Anyone can tip a $2.00 winner," well sure that's right. But how many punters can tip $2.00 winners that win more than 50% of the time over the long term and so make a profit? Do that radio tipsters' $2.00 horses that he confidently and "expertly" asserts "will win" when tipped on top win over 50% of the time long term and so make a profit? Odds on they don't and at best win nine times out of 20, so following them results in a 10% betting loss on turnover and more likely a higher loss on turnover.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2009 Melbourne Cup Day
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