Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software
Win at racing

 

 

28/8/2010 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Warwick Farm - 21/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gergis
60.5kg.
7
1600
$5.50
5/10
Moonee Valley - 21/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Cameo Minx
59kg.
5
2040
$3.80fav.
8/10
Doomben - 21/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Forestreno
59kg.
1
1200
$4.40
1/8
Morphettville - 21/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Swift Bay
59.5kg.
2
1200
$8.00
11/11
Rosehill - 14/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Centennial Park
59kg.
4
1100
$4.80
2/5
Morphettville - 14/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Maestro Of Murano
59kg.
9
2006
$8.00
2/9
Silky Smooth
60kg.
10
1600
$9.00
10/15
Randwick - 7/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Kudeta
59.5kg.
1
1300
$8.00
3/12
Flemington - 7/8/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Perturbo
59kg.
10
1000
$4.60fav.
8/13
Galbraith
59kg.
4
1000
$10.00
10/13
Caulfield - 31/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Stoneblack
59kg.
2
1800
$8.00
8/16
Randwick - 24/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Geared Up
59.5kg.
5
1000
$7.00
3/7
Moonee Valley - 24/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Pinnacles
60kg.
1
1514
$7.00
5/13
Morphettville - 24/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Likable Will
59.5kg.
2
1000
$8.00
4/10
Verco Road
59kg.
6
1400
$4.00fav.
5/14
Caulfield - 17/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Stoneblack
59kg.
4
2000
$5.50
6/11
Jungle Ruler
59kg.
3
1400
$10.00
8/11
Morphettville - 17/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Golden Snip
59kg.
6
1200
$6.00
2/8
Randwick - 10/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Offhanded
60kg.
4
1200
$1.75fav.
2/4
Daytona Beach
59kg.
8
1600
$5.50
1/10
Flemington - 10/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mont Fleuri
59kg.
5
1600
$7.00
2/13
Eagle Farm - 10/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Firebolt
59kg.
9
1800
$2.40fav.
1/14
Moonee Valley - 3/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Spirited Eagle
59kg.
7
1200
$2.90fav.
1/10
Stoneblack
59kg.
4
2040
$3.50fav.
1/8
Sunshine Coast - 3/7/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
King Mufhasa
60kg.
7
1400
$7.00
3/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Following Horse Racing Media Tipsters' Betting Advice & Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/8/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 7/8/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.