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28/8/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 21st. August, 2010 at the Moonee Valley horse racing track.

Moonee Valley.
Track: Slow.
Rail: Out 4 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.36

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 8
Equal Favourite: Tinamou
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Equal Favourite: Miles Above
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Denis Daffy

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Cameo Minx
Days since last start: 6
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Michael Kent

R3 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Devils Force
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mark Riley

R4 $100,000 3YO. Fillies. Listed. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Curtana
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R5 $100,000 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Achievements
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $100,000 4YO & UP. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Morgan Dollar
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Stuart Gower

R7 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Tio Rossa
Days since last start: 176
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 5-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1519 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Eraset
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a solid losing day with just one $3.90 starting price winner from the nine favourites. In R6 and R7 the favourites, Morgan Dollar and Tio Rossa, resumed after spells of 112 days and 176 days. Neither won. Four of the losing favourites were last start winners, so it was not the best of days for punters who back favourites provided they won their last race in their current campaign.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Following Horse Racing Media Tipsters' Betting Advice & Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/8/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 7/8/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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