Punt to Win
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Let trainers guide you into winning bets
We have never forgotten a lesson many punters were taught on a Saturday in March 2005. That Saturday at Flemington in the 3200 metres Listed Duke of Norfolk Stakes, 6YO gelding Pantani, trained by Robbie Laing, resumed from a spell of over four months.
Pantani had only won four races from his 43 starts, but they included the South Australian Derby in 2002 and the Duke of Norfolk Stakes in 2004.
Robbie Laing knew what he was doing. He had trained Pantani to perfection and set the 6YO gelding for a huge, first up run in the Duke of Norfolk Stakes. Pantani, who started at $9.00, won. It was an outstanding training feat by Robbie Laing.
Just like horses, trainers also have their habits. So if you want to give yourself an edge over most punters you will keep a file of trainers and enter any notable training achievements and the way trainers get their winners. You will never dismiss as "it can't win" a Robbie Laing trained first up runner over 2400 or 3200 metres.
Other things to look for:
1. Trainers who successfully drop horses back in distance unusual amounts such as 1600 metres to 1200 metres.
2. Trainers who race horses out of their class - say in a Group race. The horse fails, then it comes out next start and with more weight wins at good odds in say a Welter handicap.
3. Trainers who replace an apprentice with a senior jockey or a jockey who last won on the horse when they have it ready to win. Note some trainers put a poor, low strike rate jockey on a horse which then runs badly because of a bad ride and then "improves" lengths next start at genrous odds with a quality jockey.
4. Trainers who have a great strike rate with discards from another stable that are having their first or second run for them.
5. Trainers who have a great strike rate with first up runners.
6. Trainers who rarely win with first up runners. They are often doing nothing more than sending the horse out for a trial under race conditions. When the horse doesn't perform, as they expect, they get better odds next start and back it.
7. Trainers who run a horse in track conditions that don't suit it, then explain that as the reason for the huge improvement when the horse comes out and wins at big odds next start.
8. Trainers who have great success taking horses to another state.
Get the idea.
When you are armed with this sort of knowledge you'll be surprised at how many extra good winners you are able to back.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2009 Melbourne Cup Day
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