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7/8/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 31st. July, 2010 at the Caulfield horse racing track.

Caulfield
Track: Dead.
Rail: Out 4 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.52

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Curtana
Days since last start: 126
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Ocean Challenger
Days since last start: 91
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Darren Magro

R3 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Music In The Park
Days since last start: 73
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: John Moloney

R4 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Lordoftheparrots
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 6-14
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Miss Lily Rose
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $125,000 Group 3. Weight for Age. Bletchingly Stakes.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Velocitea
Days since last start: 90
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-17
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R7 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Beyond Pardon
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Maxisun
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 9-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Tony Vasil

Comments:
Punters betting favourites started the day with the first two winners and that's where it ended. These two winners were successful after spells of 126 days and 91 days. In R3 Music In The Park was unplaced after a spell of 73 days, while in R6, the Group 3 Weight for Age Bletchingly Stakes, Velocitea finished third after a spell of 90 days. In R4 and R8 punters sent out as favourites two horses, Lordoftheparrots and Maxisun, that failed to run a place at their previous starts. They were both unplaced again.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning Money Wagering Horse Racing Trainer Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Potter horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/7/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/7/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 17/7/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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