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7/8/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Moonee Valley horse racing track on Saturday, 24th. July, 2010.

Moonee Valley
Track: Slow.
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.35

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Broadcast
Days since last start: first race start
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Dorsoduro
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 7th.

Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rue Maple
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darren Weir

R4 $70,000 4YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Mangonui
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Ian Hutchins

R5 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1514 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Das Machen
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ben Knobel
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1514 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Tiakinui
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 6-15
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Matthew Enright

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Tinamou
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Viking Turf Belle
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 6th.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Adam McCabe
Trainer: Jason Warren

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a profitable meeting with three winners from eight bets. One of these winners, Rue Maple, won at its previous start, the other two were placed. In R1 punters missed out when sending first starter Broadcast out as the favourite. In R7 $3.00 favourite Tinamou successfully jumped in distance from 1800 metres to 2500 metres. However, in R5 Das Machem jumped in distance from 1200 metres to 1514 metres and did not win, while in R8 Viking Turf Belle dropped back in distance from 1200 metres to 1000 metres, always a tough task and only finished sixth. In R6 Tiakinui was unplaced at its previous start and again finished out of a place.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning Money Wagering Horse Racing Trainer Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Potter horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/7/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/7/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 17/7/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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