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17/7/2010 edition

Betting Money Munchers

Have a look at the following table showing a list of horses that all ran on a Saturday in metropolitan races around Australia a few years ago.

Money Munchers - February 19, 2005
Horse Number of Races Number of Wins Starting Price Finish
Astrodame 12 1 4.40 4
Jackman 37 4 4.40 2
Kashkii 54 7 6.00 5
Matey 21 2 5.50 4
Winning Spirit 42 7 2.80 2
Magical Spirit 46 6 2.70 3
William Of Oz 72 8 3.80 2
Stark Touch 63 8 4.00 5


What all these horses have in common is a poor winning strike rate. They also were all sent out at relatively short starting prices, well below their winning strike rates.

We have all been caught by Money Munchers. These horses very rarely win. But they run just well enough to get you to bet your money on them next start. Just as surely they then again lose. To make matters worse, when they do occasionally win iyou won't be on them, because their previous start was a shocker!

Taking short odds about horses with poor winning strike rates is always very risky. If their last start was a good run you need to be very untrusting! After a good run they are very likely to put in a very ordinary run the following start. That's because most Money Munchers are by definition inconsistent horses. That's why they have a poor winning strike rate.

Punters have never made long term profits taking short odds about Money Munchers.
A very successful punter we know never backs Money Munchers. He rarely wagers on a horse with less than a 30% winning strike rate. He also insists on good odds.

Here is what he has told us. For ease of reference we have put this down in point form.

1. If you are getting good odds about horses that win regularly you should be able to make a profit with sensible betting.

2. Make certain the distance of the race is O.K.

3. See if the horse handles the track.

4. The horse must also be able to run in the conditions. Do not use guesswork here. If the horse has never run on a Heavy track do not back it first time on a Heavy.

5. Weight is important. The horse must be able to handle any weight increase. Again don't use guesswork. Do not assume the horse will run O.K. carrying 59kg. if the highest weight it has carried is say 56kg. Think of weightlifters. They can't keep successfully lifting higher and higher weights.

6. Check for the pace of the race. Do not back a leader if the race is full of leaders. Do not back a run on horse unless there are at least two leaders in the race. So watch out for scratchings. They are are important.

7. Barriers are also important. Do not worry about a wide barrier too much if the horse usually settles near the rear of the field. However a wide barrier is a real concern for a leader or on pace horse, particularly if plenty of horses drawn inside it are leaders or on pace runners.

8. Last but not least the jockey is very important. It is best if the horse has its regular jockey. If not, look for a leading jockey. Only the best apprentices will do. Many apprentices are not worth their claims. They are learning on the job. Why risk your money when they are practising.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing Betting on Money Munchers
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/6/2010
Punt to Win index


2009 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Strawberry Field 21.00 32.60 $116
Right Fong 13.70 17.00 $33
Majestic Music 9.80 13.00 $32
Common Interest 9.20 12.00 $28
She's Got Gears 10.00 12.60 $26
Flying Tessie 11.00 13.40 $24
Shocking 9.80 11.00 $12


 

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