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17/7/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 10th. July, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: Slow.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 5.05

R1 $75,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Little Artist
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Our Baby Bonus
Days since last start: 26
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mick Price
Trainer: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins

R3 $75,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Tinamou
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R4 $150,000 Banjo Paterson Series. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Oak Heart
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Darren Weir

R5 $100,000 3YO. Silver Bowl Series. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 13
Equal Favourite: Lord Of Arms
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Patrick Payne
Equal Favourite: Good Value
Days since last start: 12
Distance last start: 1416
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent

R6 $200,000 Listed. VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Doubtful Jack
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1420
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R7 $150,000 All Victorian Sprint Series. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Elusive Touch
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R8 $100,000 3YO. Fillies. Rivette Series. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Winged Charm
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 13th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had an ugly day with just one $1.60 winner in R6 from the nine favourites. In R2 Our Baby Bonus was unplaced at its previous start and ran unplaced again. In R3 Tinamou was not successful dropping back in distance from 2040 metres to 1800 metres while in R7 the 35 days between 1200 metres runs did nothing for Elusive Touch.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing Betting on Money Munchers
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/6/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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