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17/7/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 26th. June, 2010.

On this day the $500,000 Group 1 Fillies & Mares Weight for Age Winter Stakes was run over 1400 metres at Eagle Farm.

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Readyor
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.95
Jockey: Kody Nestor
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Winner: We Betcha
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 88. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Hawk Island
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Extreme Mover
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Alittlebitofmonica
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Marc Conners

R6 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Animando
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Atomic Force
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Blake Spriggs
Trainer: Darren Smith

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing Betting on Money Munchers
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/6/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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