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17/7/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Moonee Valley horse racing track on Saturday, 3rd. July, 2010.

Moonee Valley
Track: Slow.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 5.23

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Spirited Eagle
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

R2 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Stoneblack
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1730
Result last start: 5-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R3 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Sunday Rose
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 3rd.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Bart Cummings

R4 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Viking Turf Belle
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Adam McCabe
Trainer: Jason Warren

R5 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Signor Socks
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Kate Goodrich

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Black And Bent
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 3400 hurdle
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R7 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Ghostmilk
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Philda
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1420
Result last start: 5-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Adam McCabe
Trainer: Michael Kent

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a HUGE winning meeting with five winners from just eight bets. Two of these winning favourites were unplaced at their previous start. They were Stoneblack in R2 and Philda in R8. The other three winning favourites, Spirited Eagle, Viking Turf Belle and Ghostmilk were all last start winners no longer than 14 days earlier.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing Betting on Money Munchers
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/6/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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