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17/7/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 26th. June, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: Heavy.
Rail: Out 12 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.42

R1 $75,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Breitling
Days since last start: First race start.
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1420 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Al Jandar
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ryan Malone
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R3 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1730 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Stoneblack
Days since last start: 12
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-7
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R4 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: The Handsome One
Days since last start: 140
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 6-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Keano
Days since last start: 133
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 7-13
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R6 $75,000 VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series. Heat 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1420 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Doubtful Jack
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Red Buttons
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Michael Kent

R8 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1630 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Cheronbutch
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Peter Healey

Comments:
Punters solidly backing first starter Breitling in R1 missed out when it finished second. In R3, Stoneblack was unplaced after only finishing third in a field of seven at its previous start, while in R5 Keano which finished seventh at its last start was plunged from $5.50 to start at $3.80 and finished ninth. Punters were successful in catching The Handsome One winning first up after a spell of 140 days. They needed to be after losing significant amounts of money backing favourites resuming after long spells. The other winning favourite for the day, Doubtful Jack, was a last start winner.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing Betting on Money Munchers
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 3/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 26/6/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/6/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 26/6/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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