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7/8/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 17th. July, 2010 at the Caulfield horse racing track.

Caulfield
Track: Dead.
Rail: True position.
Penetrometer: 5.55

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Only He Knows
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Breitling
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Triumphant Choice
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1713
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Dr Nipandtuck
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: James Fraser

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Beyond Pardon
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R6 $100,000 Sir John Monash Stakes. Listed. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Reward For Effort
Days since last start: 469
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 7-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Philda
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Adam McCabe
Trainer: Michael Kent

R8 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Big Spirit
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a winning meeting with four winners including favourites winning the first three races. There was a fantastic training feat with Peter G. Moody and Luke Nolen teaming up in R6 to win on Reward For Effort which was resuming after a 469 day's injury enforced spell. In R1 Only He Knows won after finishing fourth a week earlier, however in R4 Dr Nipandtuck which was also unplaced at its previous start did not win. In R7 Philda did not win after dropping back in distance from 1500 metres to 1400 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning Money Wagering Horse Racing Trainer Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Potter horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/7/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/7/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/7/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/7/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 17/7/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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