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28/8/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 14th. August, 2010.

Caulfield.
Track: R1-2 Heavy, R3-8 Slow.
Rail: Out 7 metres.
Penetrometer: 6.23

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Zoomin
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent

R2 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Salinas
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 2006
Result last start: 5-16
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $100,000 3YO. Colts & geldings. Listed. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Star Witness
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 12-13
Result this start: 3rd.

Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R4 $100,000 3YO. Fillies. Listed. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Crystal Lily
Days since last start: 133
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

R5 $100,000 4YO & UP. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Avenue
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 16-18
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $200,000 J. J. Liston Stakes. 3YO & UP. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Shoot Out
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: John Wallace

R7 $125,000 Cockram Stakes. Mares. Group 3. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Lady Lynette
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 8-17
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Imperial Command
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a small losing meeting at top fluctuation bookmaker odds with two winners at $4.20 and $3.00 from eight bets. One of these winners, Shoot Out, won at its previous start, however the other winner, Zoomin, finished fourth at its previous start. In R2, R3, R4, R5 and R7 the favourites were all first up after long spells of well over 100 days. Not one of these favourites had a win.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Following Horse Racing Media Tipsters' Betting Advice & Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/8/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 7/8/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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