19/12/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, December 13.

Rosehill: Track Dead
R2 $50,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mutheer
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 4 lengths
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.20
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Bouchette
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctation: $7.50
Tote dividends' range: $8.30 - $8.70
Jockey: Mitchell Bell
Trainer: Gregory Hickman

R3 $50,000 3YO. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Glasos
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: half neck
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctation: $1.70
Tote dividends' range: $1.40 - $1.60
Jockey: Ronnie Stewart
Trainer: Stephen Hill

Moonee Valley: Track Good
R1 $40,000 3YO Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: French Ploy
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Mantle
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
Tote dividends' range: $5.40 - $6.00
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes

R2 $40,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rather Grand
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctation: $1.90
Tote dividends' range: $1.50 - $1.60
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Silver Birch
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctation: $2.90
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Mick Cerchi
Winner: Marbine
Winning/losing margin: neck
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
Tote dividends' range: $3.20 - $3.30
Jockey: Patrick Payne
Trainer: Peter G Moody

Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $22,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Grace And Power
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctation: $1.30
Tote dividends' range: $1.30 - $1.30
Jockey: Chris Bryant
Trainer: David Balfour

R2 $22,000 2YO Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Swing Embrace
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 0.5 lengths
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctation: $2.00
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Sunmaya
Winning/losing margin: short half head
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctation: $6.00
Tote dividends' range: $5.20 - $6.80
Jockey: David Tootell
Trainer: Mick Whittle

This edition of Punt to Win:
What a load of Taurus- betting odds fluke, betting odds unders
Comment: avoid betting spruikers
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/12/2003
Punt to Win index

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