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20/10/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 13th. October, 2012.

Caulfield: Track R1 - R4 Dead, R5 - R9 Good.

R5 $400,000 3YO & UP. Group 1. Caulfield Stakes. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Ocean Park
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Gary Hennessy


Doomben: Track Good.

R2 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: The Storeman
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Tony Gollan
Winner: Gibberer
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.70
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: John P. Thompson

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 6th. October, 2012.

Randwick: Track Good.

R3 $175,000 3YO. Group 2. Roman Consul Stakes. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Ichihara
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Jolie Bay
Starting price: $9.50
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.60
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

R5 $400, 000 3YO. Group 1. Spring Champion Stakes. Set weights.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Proisir
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.28
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: It's A Dundeel
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Murray Baker


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R3 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Grey Assignment
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Rosie Myers
Trainer: Kelso Wood

R4 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Reflectance
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.55
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: John P Thompson
Winner: Platinum State
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.30
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Trainer: Bryan Guy

R6 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Jet Style
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Donald Baker
Winner: Whateverwhenever
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Liam Birchley

This edition of Punt to Win:
The Melbourne Cup Spring Carnival free horse racing betting system
Horse racing media free horse racing ratings
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 13/10/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: 6/10/2012 & 30/9/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/10/2012 & 6/10/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/9/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 29/9/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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