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20/10/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 29th. September, 2012.

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R1 $85,000 3YO &UP. Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Studio
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Hoylonny
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Proverb
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $250,000 3YO &UP. Fillies & Mares. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: More Joyous
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.04
Top fluctuation: $1.04
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.04
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $175,000 Stan Fox Stakes. 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Albrecht
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Kabayan
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R2 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Antarctic Dream
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Bruce W. Hill
Winner: Platinum State
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Kirk Matheson
Trainer: Bryan Guy

R3 $45,000 Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Theft
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Tony Gollan

R5 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Poor Judge
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Anthony Honess
Winner: Bold Glance
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Kirk Matheson
Trainer: Norm Hilton

R6 $45,000 Fillies & Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Flying Jet
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Kelly Schweida
Winner: Cuddlesome
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Brad Stewart
Trainer: Les Ross

This edition of Punt to Win:
The Melbourne Cup Spring Carnival free horse racing betting system
Horse racing media free horse racing ratings
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 13/10/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: 6/10/2012 & 30/9/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/10/2012 & 6/10/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/9/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 29/9/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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