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21/2/2003 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

That's how tight betting markets are

Betting markets are very tight. A case in point was last Saturday at Flemington in the 3YO Open run over 1000 metres.

On the surface Sensational Spot looked a very poor bet.

1. The filly's five runs had all been over 1200 metres.
2. The filly was dropping back in distance from 1200 metres to 1000 metres.
3. The filly's last 1200 metres' race was only seven days earlier which made the drop back in distance even more difficult.

In the field of eight runners the top fluctuation odds offered by bookmakers about Sensational Spot was just $6.00. Now horses dropping back from 1200 metres to 1000 metres within one week have a terrible winning strike rate. Talk about conservative odds.

Sensational Spot won. But punters who regularly ignore the drop back in distance when making their bets need much better odds than $6.00 about these winners.

Making use of some compex analysis, despite the negatives, we gave Sensational Spot the best chances of winning that race. To say we were disappointed with top fluctuation odds of only $6.00 is an understatement.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Racing Victoria's horse racing track watering preparation policy
Betting tips - that's how tight markets are
Win betting tote firmers - read this
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill, Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville, Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/2/2003
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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