21/2/2003 edition

Win Betting Tote Firmers

At Morphettville last Saturday 4YO mare Kyshnaha was first up in a restricted race run over 1200 metres. The mare had won her only other race, a Gawler maiden, in September last year by over three lengths.

On track Kyshnaha was solidly backed and firmed from $11.00 to start at $6.50. Tote punters were no doubt well informed about the money coming in on track for Kyshnaha, saw the tote price flashing in front of them, indicating a tote firmer and joined the party.

Kyshnaha won the 15 horse race. The best tote odds were $4.20, while SuperTab paid a paltry $3.80.

This is a prime example of why win betting tote "firmers" should not be done. You cannot take $3.80 about a horse which starts at $6.50 after being $11.00. Getting such big unders on your winners is a guaranteed way to lose money over the long term, because noone gives you refunds on your losing bets. That means you have to squeeze out the maximum odds you can get when you back a winner.

Worst bet of the year?

It's worth noting that in the same race the Mark Minervini trained 5YO gelding Sciatica was also solidly backed and firmed from $6.50 to $4.50. At those odds it has to go down as a candidate for worst bet of the year.

Sciatica, who only had two wins from 40 starts, raced true to form and finished twelfth of 15, beaten by nearly nine lengths. It's just possible that something went wrong in the race. But we're not about to rush out to thoroughly monitor Sciatica's run in the race on video. We're not particularly interested in a proven non-winner.

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