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21/2/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the horse racing results from Saturday, 14th. February, 2009.

Eagle Farm: Track Heavy

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal Favourite: Bob And Dolly
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Eddie Wilkinson
Trainer: Bruce & Jason McLachlan
Equal Favourite: Easy Knight
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Mark Currie

R2 $45,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Tisani Boy
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Lindsay Hatch

R3 $45,000 Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Kings Artist
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Bobby El-Issa
Trainer: David Murphy
Winner: Malela
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Kevin Kemp

R5 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rebounded
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Michael Palmer
Trainer: Pat Duff
Winner: Sam's Express
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Michael Nolan

R6 $45,000 Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Abbacina
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Kris Lees

R7 $75,000 Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sommersea Drive
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Ken Pope
Trainer: Trevor Miller
Winner: Vocalic
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Ron Maund

Other horse racing results from 14th. February, 2009.
Click here

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tote betting odds in small horse racing fields
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/1/2009
The Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2009 & 7/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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