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21/2/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 31st. January, 2009.

Rosehill: Track Good

R2 $70,000 3YO & upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite:Rain Game
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $70,000 3YO. Rst78. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Metal Bender
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Jack Denham


Flemington: Track Good
Lightning Stakes Day

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties..
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Come Hither
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.65
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $75,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Hey Rosie
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Greg Eurell
Winner: Wehaveadream
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Lee Hope


Doomben: Track Good

R2 $50,500 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Simplest
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Barry Baldwin
Winner: Azzaland
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Garry Baker
Trainer: Richie Stephenson


Morphettville: Track Good

R3 $25,500 Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Li'l Cashy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Amy Herrmann
Trainer: David Balfour
Winner: Tis Isat
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell

R6 $30,000 Mares. Open Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Symphony Miss
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Phillip Stokes


This edition of Punt to Win:
Tote betting odds in small horse racing fields
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/1/2009
The Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2009 & 7/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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