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21/2/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 31st. January, 2009.

Flemington
Lightning Stakes Day
Track: Good
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 4.84

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Come Hither
Days since last start: 108
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $75,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Hey Rosie
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1610
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Greg Eurell

R3 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Sooze
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 1-16
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Darren Weir

R4 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Schilling
Days since last start: 127
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 6-9
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R5 $200,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Keano
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R6 $500,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Weekend Hussler
Days since last start: 105
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 12-17
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Ross McDonald

R7 $200,000 3YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Gold Water
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Ma Shang
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Tony Noonan

Comments:
Three of the favourites resumed after spells of over 100 days, with two of them missing a place while Come Hither won at the prohibitive odds of $1.55. In R5 Keano failed to perform after 42 days between 1400 metres runs. While in R2 Hey Rosie finished last racing over 2000 metres just one week after a race over 1610 metres.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tote betting odds in small horse racing fields
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/1/2009
The Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2009 & 7/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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