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21/2/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Sunday, 8th. February, 2009.

Caulfield
C. F. Orr Stakes Day
Track: Dead 4
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.28

R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lady Rock
Days since last start: 134
Distance last start: 1209
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Fravashi
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $125,000 2YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Rostova
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Steve Richards

R4 $125,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Real Saga
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Just Look
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Lyn Tolson

R6 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Aichi
Days since last start: 96
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R7 $400,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Light Fantastic
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R8 $125,000 Mares. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Viking Turf Belle
Days since last start: 127
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 13th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Jason Warren

R9 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Silky Smooth
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

Comments:
Three favourites resumed after spells of 96, 129 and 134 days and all failed to win with two of them finishing 11th. and 13th. In R5 Just Look jumped from 1400 metres to 1800 metres and finished third. While in R9 Silky Smooth had a 22 days break between 1400 metres runs but was unplaced at its previous start. It failed to run a place again.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tote betting odds in small horse racing fields
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 8/2/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 31/1/2009
The Carnival Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/2/2009 & 7/2/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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