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21/9/2013 edition

"This Horse WILL Win. It Can't Lose!"

Imagine a horse being sent around as a $3.00 favourite in a field of 15 and after the horse's run you hear the race caller say:

"The favourite had every possible hope. I couldn't find a semblance of an excuse. It had the one out, one back spot, loomed up and wasn't disgraced by any manner of means. It battled on to finish fifth, not very far from the winner, but it was never going to win either."

Now imagine a TV media horse racing tipster saying earlier in the day, just before the race, about the same horse:

"I can't see one horse in this race that can beat it. It WILL win. It's a certainty."

1. Clearly the bookmakers disagreed with the TV media horse racing tipster and were correct. That's why they offered $3.00 about the horse that "WILL win."

2. Not just one, but four other horses beat it in the race.

3. How is it possible, how does it even make sense, to give one horse a 100% chance of winning the race and the rest of the field 0% chance of winning?

As punters, surely we should take such statistically unsound comments for whet they are worth, and dismiss them?

When you read or hear media tipsters telling you a horse "cannot possibly lose, there's nothing in the race that can beat it, or only bad luck can beat it," it's probably best to be generous and say it's an exaggeration.

They probably mean the horse has a top winning chance. Let's hope so.

As a very worthwhil exercise it pays to carefully note what the horse racing media tipsters say about the horses and how the race is going to be run before the race. It often sounds like very intelligent and informed comment. There is often no lacking of confidence from theese horse racing media tipsters - they talk to you as if they are professionals who win long term at racing.

Then look at what actually happened in the race. That usually throws a completely different slant on those earlier comments like "Nothing can possibly beat this horse," or "I expect a lack of speed in this race," etc. etc. etc.

Our legendary tipster, Lucky Lil continues to give you FREE horse racing tips that WIN BIG!

Like three tips for a
$31.00 winner on Saturday, 24th. August!

Like three tips for an
$8.20 winner on Saturday, 17th. August!

Who can forget Lucky Lil's winning tips on some of the biggest Melbourne Spring Carnival racing days of 2012?

Like:

On Caulfield Cup Day Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 Caulfield Cup Winner Dunaden and Snitsky $6.50 at Randwick!

On Cox Plate Day from 3 tips
Lucky Lil tipped $10.00 Winner Mosse Diva at Rosehill.


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This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse WILL win. It can't lose!"
The Free Trifecta Big $$$$ Dividend Collects horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 14/9/2013, 7/9/2013 & 31/8/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/9/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 7/9/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/8/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 31/8/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9


 

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