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22/11/2008 edition

Horse Racing Strategies
Betting Tips

The worst horse racing bet of the century.

We've been looking, but we still haven't seen a worse bet than this. Here it is from a few years ago.

What odds would you expect a horse to start in a 2YO Open at Doomben on a Saturday with the following form at its only two races?

September 27, 2003 - 13th of 16, beaten by 16.5 lengths in a 2YO Open at Toowoomba.

January 31, 2004 - last of 11, beaten by 21.7 lengths in a 2YO Open at Eagle Farm.

I think it should be pretty obvious. It's got no chance.

But Star Of The Galaxy had that shocking form and started at the crazy odds of $4.40 second favourite on Saturday, February 14, 2004 at Doomben. Here is what race caller Alan Thomas had to say about Star Of The Galaxy after the race:

"You see, it doesn't add up, does it. The day the bookmakers want to bet you $4.00 or $4.60 about a horse that everyone's going to tell you's going to win by six to ten. Ahh...nah. It just doesn't add up. Now Star Of The Galaxy, if the bookmakers put him up at $1.80 and everyone tells you he'll win by six or ten, you bet your life he does.

But when the bookies want to bet you $4.60 about a horse that's supposed to win somewhere by six to ten lengths they don't run a drum. He hasn't run a place. Bookies win again. Just have a look at the Mercs in the car park."

It added up to us. If you paid attention to race form you had to dismiss Star Of The Galaxy as having virtually no hope of winning.

Star Of The Galaxy had some excellent winning trial form. But the colt had already shown that its winning trial form was not reproduced in the real races. How could you ignore both of Star Of The Galaxy's race results? If you did, then it's just as bad as trying to back winners on hunches, whispers and voodoo.

We wonder whether the trainer and owners dismissed Star Of The Galaxy's two previous race results? We wonder whether they lost money backing the colt?

The bookies got it more than right. Their starting price odds of $4.40 were not generous. In our opinion punters who took $4.40 about a horse with Star Of Galaxy's form were basically throwing their money away.

We also thought Alan Thomas could have referred to the colt's previous poor race form in his summary after the race.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The worst horse racing bet of the century
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites
The Surprise Winner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Sandown Classic Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Cantala Stakes Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Melbourne Cup & Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/11/2008
Punt to Win index

2008 Melbourne Cup Day
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Juggle The Books 26.00 37.70 $117
Viewed 37.10 46.50 $94
Origami Miss 13.80 20.30 $65
Hips Don't Lie 12.20 17.00 $48
Danzylum 14.20 17.00 $28


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