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22/11/2008 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.

Here are the results from Sandown Classic Day, Saturday, 15th. November, held at the Sandown Hillside horse racing track.

Sandown Hillside
Track: Dead
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.42

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: No Comment
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 4th.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

R2 $60,000 Rst95. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 10
Equal Favourite: Instructor
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 7-12
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: John Sadler
Equal Favourite: God's Hand

Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 8-14
Result this start: 8th.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Bart Cummings

R3 $60,000 Rst95. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Gran Sasso
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith

R4 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Yesterday
Days since last start: 9
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R5 $100,000 Listed. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Captain Bax
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-16
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Kris Lees

R6 $350,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Caymans
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R7 $350,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Zipping
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 3200
Result last start: 9-22
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: MIchael Rodd
Trainer: John Sadler

R8 $100,000 Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Chasm
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Heath Conners

R9 $100,000 4YO and upward Mares. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Absolutelyfabulous
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 2nd.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Heath Conners

Comments:
Many more favourites than usual won. It would be easy to make money betting the favourites if they had this high strike rate and such excellent odds each week. It is worth noting from this week's results that each winning favourite's previous start was no longer than 14 days earlier.

This edition of Punt to Win:
The worst horse racing bet of the century
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites
The Surprise Winner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Classic Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Sandown Classic Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Cantala Stakes Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Melbourne Cup & Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/11/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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