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23/2/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 16th. February, 2013.

On this day the $500,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes was run at Flemington over 1000 metres. Six years old mare Black Caviar won the race by 2.5 lengths in track record time of 55.42 seconds. That was the undefeated Black Caviar's 23rd. consecutive win!

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R2 $175,000 Group 2. Mares. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Red Tracer
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.45
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Steps In Time
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: John O'Shea


Doomben: Track Slow.

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Teronado
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Bruce W. Hill

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Gundy Sun
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Spot On Target
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Priscilla Schmidt
Trainer: Toby Edmonds

This edition of Punt to Win:
Eleven horse racing form analysis and betting traps to avoid
The Free Beaten Favourite horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 16/2/2013, 9/2/2013 & 2/2/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/2/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 9/2/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/2/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 2/2/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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