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23/5/2003 edition

Racecaller Betting Tips
Form Analysis:
We are Fair

The other week we received an e mail which said, "Why are you always criticising racecallers? You're not being to fair to them."

We think we are being very fair. Here are some reasons why we bring to the public's notice what racecallers say:

1. Racecallers tend to be promoted as form experts by their media bosses.
2. Racecallers regularly give their bets tips for the day.
3. There are some racecallers who when they talk about horseracing talk in a way that gives the impression that they are experts on horseracing form analysis.
4. We are a racecaller's captive audience whenever we watch or listen to a race.
5. Racecallers tend not to stick at what most of them are good at - calling races, but embellish their calls with their pet betting theories, before, after and sometimes even during the race. These betting theories are often incorrect and of no help to punters.

Here are some examples from last Saturday.

When Southern Rose won the third race at Rosehill, Ian Craig said:

"Southern Rose, as I was saying before the race, usually when a horse doesn't budge in the ring from the time bookies put their prices up and it doesn't change from the time of opening to the time they jump, nine times out of ten those horses will run a mighty race."

The official bookmaker betting fluctuations for Southern Rose remained at $5.00 throughout the betting. Would Southern Rose have raced worse if it was supported with more money and firmed to $4.00? Would Southern Rose have raced any differently if it eased from its opening price of $5.00 to $6.00 and then firmed to $5.00? Or if it stayed at $6.00? Of course not.

To back a horse because its official bookmaker betting ring fluctuations stayed the same in the betting is just plain superstition, at best a betting myth. It has nothing to do with form analysis.

Does Ian Craig have any meaningful results based on statistical research to back up his claim that "nine times out of ten those horses will run a mighty race."
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Racecaller betting tips and form analysis
The Stradbroke Handicap pre-post betting odds
Betting on Heavy tracks
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown Hillside betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/5/2003
Punt to Win index

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