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23/8/2002 edition

Shogun Lodge Betting Odds

Last Saturday at Rosehill in the Group 2 Weight for Age Premiere Stakes, run over 1200 metres, Shogun Lodge was first up after a spell of three months.

Shogun Lodge is a noted backmarker. He is also best over more distance.

Justin Sheehan took speed machine Century Kid to the lead, controlled the race, while Shogun Lodge was back in the field out of sight. The last 600 metres was run in 33.86 seconds by Century Kid which meant Shogun Lodge had no chance of catching him.

Shogun Lodge did very well to run on nicely for third, beaten 3.8 lengths. But in this nine horse field Shogun Lodge was sent around as $2.80 favourite. That was virtually a case of punters throwing their money away.

The way races are won in Australia means you cannot afford to take short odds about backmarkers. With leaders and on pace runners dominating backmarkers at $2.80 are generally very poor bets. Even more so a six year old first up like Shogun Lodge.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bel Esprit is back - soft win
Spring Carnival horses
Shogun Lodge betting tip
Melbourne Cup all in betting
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/8/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Banyan Bay 23.00 37.80 $1480
Grumans 31.70 36.90 $520
Key To My Dreams 13.30 16.70 $340
Jon Ledecky 10.60 13.00 $240


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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