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23/8/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 16th. August.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R4 $150,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Triple Honour
Result: first

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Chris Waller


Caulfield: Track Slow

R1 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cholula
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith


Doomben: Track Good

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1650 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Ready When You Are
Result: second
Starting price: $3.10
Trainer: Shaun Dwyer
Winner: Secrets Untold
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Phillip Cox


Morphettville: Track Slow

R2 $22,000 3YO Fillies. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Cerberus Gal
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Gary Kennewell
Winner: Arms Wide Open
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting systems - can you be a winner?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Horses Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 16/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 9/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 2/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 16/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 9/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 2/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/8/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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