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23/8/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 2nd. August.

Rosehill: Track Slow

R1 $70,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Big Al Hazim
Result: third
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Brave Lancer
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Stephen Farley


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $25,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3250 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Isti Bee
Result: first

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Kevin Myers

R2 $40,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Frenzilian
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Heather Frew
Winner: Solitas
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Michael O'Leary

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting systems - can you be a winner?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Horses Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 16/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 9/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 2/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 16/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 9/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 2/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/8/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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