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23/8/2008 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
O Danny Boy
59.5kg.
4
1300
$8.00
4/15
Star Of Crown
59kg.
4
1200
$6.50
1/13
Priceless Lad
59kg.
4
1100
$6.00
6/12
Caulfield - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sonic Quest
59.5kg.
1
1200
$8.00
8/16
Doomben - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Polar Bear
60kg.
7
1650
$8.00
5/7
Rosehill - 9/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hadaaf
60kg.
5
1800
$4.80
1/8
Rosehill - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bank Robber
59kg.
4
1200
$1.80fav.
6/13
Newton's Rings
59kg.
5
1500
$9.00
7/12
Caulfield - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gunfire Messiah
59kg.
11
1400
$5.00fav.
5/13
Morphettville - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ejaad
59.5kg.
7
1200
$6.00
7/11
Moonee Valley - 26/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gunfire Messiah
59.5kg.
7
1600
$7.00
4/14
Cheltenham - 26/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Youths Edge
60.5kg.
2
1450
$10.00
8/9
Rosehill - 19/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Referees
59kg.
3
1400
$4.80
4/13
Morphettville - 19/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
El Maze
60.5kg.
3
1100
$7.50
4/11
Canterbury - 12/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Garden Island
59kg.
5
1200
$3.70fav.
4/7
Noble Edict
59.5kg.
3
1200
$4.20fav.
4/9
Hadaaf
59kg.
4
1200
$5.00
2/8
Moonee Valley - 12/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Kaphero
61.5kg.
9
1000
$3.30fav.
1/15
Rosehill - 5/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Confounded
59kg.
10
1200
$5.00
4/11
Xavier
59kg.
5
1200
$10.00
8/9
Newton's Rings
59.5kg.
9
1400
$8.00
5/13
Cheltenham - 5/7/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
El Maze
61.5kg.
6
1000
$5.00
7/9
Rocky Camp
59kg.
8
1360
$4.40
2/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting systems - can you be a winner?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Horses Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 16/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 9/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 2/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 16/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 9/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 2/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/8/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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