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24/1/2003 edition

Betting for Value

Last Saturday a number of "experts" on Radio Sport 927 gave as their best bet of the day for Caulfield the short priced favourites' running double Innovation Girl into The Mighty Lions.

The claim was that you would "get some value" out of these good things. That was not correct.

1. If a win bet is no value, then backing it in a double with another no value win bet on the tote does not magically create value. The totes win. They won't give you one cent's worth of value from two poor value win bets.

2. All you have done is taken a poor value double - two poor value win bets.

3. Because many tote punters will be doing exactly the same thing you can be guaranteed big unders with your payout.

4. These big unders guarantee that the bet is a long term losing bet.

5. Innovation Girl won and paid $1.60 on SuperTab. The Mighty Lions was wide throughout and never looked like winning.

6. As a bet of the day it was a dud.

7. Lesson: Taking two short priced tote favourites in a double to "create value" is a very poor value bet and should be avoided.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting for value
Tote betting "value"
Betting tips from Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Victoria Park, Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/1/2003
Punt to Win index


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Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
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Hand Pass 21.10 27.60 $650
Caramel Star 27.50 33.50 $600
Red Chip 12.40 16.70 $430


 

 

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